That, things are hard in Nigeria is no longer news under the Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 18 months old Presidency. what could be new is the news of softening up of the hardship that Nigerians are subjected to as a result of situations that should have been frontally confronted decades ago.
Reflecting on the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) of the military administration of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida years, Nigerians always have reason to suspect the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for making their lives unbearable akin to the proverbial Esau’s hand on Jacob’s.
However, the IMF has distanced itself from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s fuel subsidy removal. It says It Was Tinubu’s decision.
Addressing a press conference at the 2024 Annual Meetings of the IMF/World Bank in Washington DC, the IMF Director of Africa Region, Abebe Selassie, emphasized that the decision to remove fuel subsidies was a domestic one made by the Nigerian government; “We don’t have programmes in Nigeria. Our role is limited to regular dialogue, as we have with other nations like Japan or the UK,” Selassie stated.
Interestingly, Selassie acknowledged that the government’s choices regarding subsidy removal reflect its long-term strategy for sustainable economic growth. He also recognized the significant social costs involved and suggested that the government can mitigate these by expanding social protection for the most vulnerable citizens affected by the impact of subsidy removal. It is left to President Tinubu, step to take to mitigate the effects of his decision on the vulnerable groups of our societal structure.
The IMF clarification has made it crystal clear that the buck of economic decision stops on the table of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
How then did we get here in 18 months of the presidency Bola Ahmed Tinubu?
Yet to sit in any meeting with the IMF, World Bank, or any International Financial Institution, Tinubu hadn’t even sat at his table as the President when he took his first decision to remove petrol subsidy during his swearing-in ceremony.
What an audacious presidential order!; Subsidy gone!! And all hell was let loose! Was the President driven by dregs of the wine of power at his swearing in ground or the ambition to succeed and turn Nigeria into the dreams of many decades on his way to the presidential office?
The challenge of this article is to help the President consider *Agbado Economy* as a panacea to ameliorate the suffering of his fellow citizens.
Prior to the clarifications by the IMF, the voice of the World Bank was heard right on our soil on the hardship being experienced daily by citizens, and, not in “oyin o gi” across the sea, show me the way”. Only those among the Yoruba language speaking populace who were old enough to experience SAP will understand my drift of a humour.
The World Bank spoke in unmistakable terms; Nigerians still have at least 15 more years to travel in the tunnel before they can see the light from the ongoing reforms. Do we have to travel that long? In traveling this route, are there things to do to cushion the effect of the hardship on the masses? The answers to this will come after we have examined the reaction of the World Bank to an home grown economic philosophy; *Agbado Economy!*
At the 30th anniversary of the
Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), Indermit Gill, the Chief Economist of The World Bank, stood in for the World Bank President, Ajay Banga, to participate in the discussion.
What the NESG and the World Bank Chief Economist failed to realise is that stories about reforms wouldn’t make sense to a nation whose democracy has been built on prebendal indulgences aka stomach infrastructure by the political elites; with empty stomach, desperation has hit an unprecedented level.
The World Bank spokesman started out with greetings, due observance of protocol and the apologies of his boss, Ajay Banga; VP Shettima was seated including Hon. Ministers Bagudu and Wale Edun amongst other government officials and political elites.
The guest said “Nigeria is an important country at a critical crossroads; I would rather be here than anywhere else”.
“I was asked to speak about “the most pressing challenges affecting Nigeria and Africa’s economic development and growth””.
Note that the subject matter of discussion is crystal clear; THE MOST PRESSING CHALLENGES AFFECTING NIGERIA AND AFRICA’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH”
“I am going to focus on Nigeria for a simple reason: Africa goes as Nigeria goes. Given its size and significance, the success of Nigeria’s reforms will give a big boost to countries across the continent. Because the whole world has a stake in Africa’s future, the whole world needs to pay attention to what Nigeria is trying to do”.
The World Bank Chief Economist was impeccable with is words; “As we gather here, there is suffering in all sections of Nigerian society, but especially among the poor and the young”.
“They want good schools and colleges, affordable healthcare, decent jobs, and safe conditions which allow them to make full use of their potential”
Our needs, the World Bank considered as a want; this is the problem with neo-liberal thinking about Africa. Our needs are perpetually treated as our wants. President Tinubu must underline that and give it the thought that must take away his sleep.
“High inflation is hurting everyone, but it is hurting the poorest people the most. Oil wealth that ought to be used for the welfare of all Nigerians has for too long been used to benefit the elites. The elites are also being hurt by the reforms that started last year, but they did well in the past and they have buffers. Ordinary Nigerians are being hurt more by the reforms, they were also hurt by the policies of the past, and they have no buffers.Their welfare should be uppermost in our minds”.
The position of IMF & World Bank officials about the economy in Nigeria provides a fertile ground for the President to look at his home grown Agbado Economy as a bailout framework and a way to arrest hunger and poverty while waiting on the “long-term” results expected from the ongoing reforms.
(Link of Agbado Economy video)
Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) should take a redefinition in the context of our situation. I will take each word of SAP for conceptualising a way forward.
Structural: a political restructuring of the components of our federation will offer hope to the people and create some level of economic viability at the level of the federating units that may take pressure off from the federal government.
Adjustment: this requires a paradigm shift to Financing rather than the decade-long and ongoing funding ofthe administration of government and productivity of labour. It’s imperative to for the nation to make the advocated shift in our public expenditures rather than the customary exercise of cash-funding of government administration and productivity of labour. The envisioned adjustment process should be our first step towards financing practices to reward productivity and activate wealth creation. This will create a virtouos cycle of prosperity for citizens rather than a vicious cycle of poverty associated with the jaded cash-funding exercise.
Programme: a shift to financing of governance administration and labour productivity will unleash a
sustainable process of economic growth and development to deliver job opportunities to citizens for livelihoods in pursuit of happiness in lifespan. This should be our focus as we travel in the suggested 15-year period in the tunnel aka reform gestation period. The President must not fail to understand that the short time success of Agbado Economy in its synergy with his long term economic reforms will determine his fate in 2027. The masses are too hungry to care about tomorrow if provision is not made for them today. The Elite class, if they still exist are entirely political with a majority in the opposition; how well they prize the national economy over their being in power is very well known to the President; Will Mr. President sleep this night without taking a look at the Agbado Economy?
